Three Years On: Assessing The State of Nigeria’s Economy Under Tinubu

President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms, launched three years ago with the removal of fuel subsidies and unification of Nigeria’s exchange rate, have reshaped the country’s financial landscape but left stark divides between macroeconomic gains and everyday hardship. The naira collapsed from N460/$ to over N1,500/$ in the official market before stabilizing, while petrol prices jumped from N185 to over N900 per liter, triggering inflation that peaked at 34.6% in late 2024. Despite these challenges, Nigeria’s GDP grew by 3.4% in the first quarter of 2026, and tax revenues outside oil rose significantly, contributing to a decade-high current account surplus. The removal of fuel subsidies in early 2023 was framed as a necessary fiscal correction, as Nigeria was spending more on subsidies than on healthcare, education, and infrastructure combined. While the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) was barely remitting funds to the government, the subsidy primarily benefited fuel importers, logistics operators, and corrupt networks. The policy generated N37.4 trillion in Federation Account allocations by 2025, with total revenue collections from N16.5 trillion in 2023 to N29.5 trillion in 2024, according to the World Bank. However, the abrupt implementation without adequate social safety nets caused immediate hardship, doubling transport fares and food prices overnight. The unification of exchange rates in June 2023 eliminated the artificial gap between official and parallel market rates, forcing the naira to reflect its true value. The currency’s sharp depreciation—from N460/$ to over N1,500/$—disrupted businesses reliant on imported goods and foreign exchange. Though the naira has since stabilized, manufacturers and farmers still face difficulties sourcing dollars, often waiting months for access. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) later introduced stabilization measures, but the reforms’ initial shock lingered, particularly for small businesses and low-income households. On the ground, the economic reforms have not translated into widespread relief. Salaries in markets like Oshodi and Sabon Gari often fail to cover monthly expenses, while farmers struggle with soaring fertilizer and diesel costs. The government’s promised cash transfer program to mitigate subsidy removal’s impact rolled out slowly, leaving many vulnerable citizens without support. Economists argue the reforms were structurally sound but acknowledge execution flaws, particularly the lack of preparation for their human consequences. Three years later, Nigeria’s economy remains in transition. While GDP growth and revenue improvements signal progress, the daily reality for most Nigerians—rising costs, currency volatility, and limited economic mobility—paints a more complex picture. The government continues to highlight macroeconomic gains, but the divide between official data and lived experience persists, leaving the full verdict on Tinubu’s economic agenda still unresolved.