Tinubu’s defining gamble: reform, hardship and the road to 2027

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu marked three years in office with a speech framing his administration’s economic reforms as necessary sacrifices for long-term prosperity. The reforms—most notably the removal of petrol subsidies and foreign exchange liberalization—were politically risky but aimed to address long-standing economic distortions, including fuel subsidies draining public funds and multiple exchange rates hurting transparency. The reforms triggered immediate backlash: fuel prices surged, inflation rose, the naira depreciated, and living costs climbed sharply for millions of Nigerians. Despite the hardship, the government cites improved public revenue, stronger investor confidence, and better foreign exchange liquidity as signs of progress. Tinubu’s decision to dismantle entrenched policies early in his term was bold but divisive, with critics linking the reforms to rising hardship. The administration argues that short-term pain is essential to avoid a deeper fiscal crisis, though skeptics remain unconvinced. The 2027 election will test whether Nigerians believe the reforms are working or if they will punish the government for the economic strain. Key reforms included scrapping the fuel subsidy in May 2023 and ending the multiple exchange-rate system, both of which economists had long criticized. While inflation and currency depreciation have strained households, the government points to macroeconomic stabilization as evidence of success. The political gamble now hinges on whether Nigerians see tangible benefits before the next vote.