Top 10@10 | RBI, GDP, rupee, trade — India’s economy had a lot to say this Friday

India’s economy closed FY26 with stronger-than-expected growth, registering a 7.7% expansion, up from 7.1% in FY25, according to provisional estimates released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on June 5. The March quarter alone saw growth accelerate to 7.8%, driven by robust investment, infrastructure spending, and resilient household consumption, as highlighted by MoSPI Secretary Saurabh Garg. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained its policy repo rate at 5.25% in a unanimous decision, but signaled caution by lowering its FY27 GDP forecast to 6.6% from 6.9% and raising its inflation projection to 5.1%, citing higher crude oil prices and global uncertainties. The central bank also noted core inflation at 4.7%, reflecting persistent price pressures. The Indian rupee surged to its highest level in over two months, marking its strongest single-day rally, as RBI measures to boost foreign capital inflows and stabilize the currency took effect. These steps included efforts to strengthen India’s external sector, which markets responded to positively. AirTrunk, a data center company backed by Blackstone and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB), announced plans to invest over $30 billion (₹3 lakh crore) in building 5GW of data center capacity in India by 2030. Meanwhile, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal indicated that an interim India-US trade deal, offering preferential access for Indian exports, could be finalized by mid-July. Economic challenges for FY27 remain, with Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran warning that oil prices, monsoon risks, and the West Asia crisis could test India’s growth resilience. Despite these uncertainties, the strong FY26 performance provides a foundation for policymakers to navigate ahead.