Trump Allies Warn That Energy Costs Are Undermining Economic Message Ahead of Midterms

Republican allies of President Donald Trump are raising alarms that surging energy costs and inflation are overshadowing economic progress before the midterms. Inflation hit 4.2% year-over-year in May, the highest in three years, with energy prices spiking due to disruptions in oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran war. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, stood at 2.9%, but rising gasoline prices remain a visible economic pain point for voters. Economists tied to the administration, including E.J. Antoni of the Heritage Foundation, argue that inflation tied to the conflict risks undermining public perception of economic gains, such as tax cuts and deregulation. Daniel Kishi of American Compass acknowledged that the Iran war imposes near-term political costs, despite supporters’ claims of strategic benefits. The White House insists the economy remains resilient, citing 172,000 new jobs in May and steady unemployment at 4.3%. Trump dismissed inflation concerns, stating oil prices would drop sharply once hostilities end. However, critics like Richard Stern of Advancing American Freedom note that gasoline prices dominate public discourse, overshadowing other economic improvements, such as lower prescription drug and auto prices. Republicans face pressure to address inflation ahead of congressional races that could decide House and Senate control. While the administration points to job growth and spending resilience, strategists fear voters will prioritize energy costs over broader economic metrics.