Trump and Elon Musk Crushed USAID. Hunger and Violence Followed.

The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) suspended nearly all overseas programs shortly after President Donald Trump took office in 2017, followed by an informal dissolution in July of that year—the largest withdrawal of American international aid in over 60 years. A study published May 14 in *Science* suggests this abrupt shutdown may have contributed to rising violent conflict across Africa, particularly in politically fragile regions dependent on USAID’s food, healthcare, and disaster relief programs. Researchers analyzed 870 subnational African regions receiving varying levels of USAID support and found that, within 10 months of the funding cuts, areas with high historical USAID funding experienced a 12.3% increase in conflict overall. Armed battles surged by 7.3%, protests and riots rose by 6.8%, and battle-related fatalities increased by 9.3%. The study’s authors, including University of Chicago researcher Austin Wright, noted this shutdown was unprecedented in scale, with no comparable example in recorded history. USAID’s programs—such as emergency food kitchens, therapeutic foods, and health and water initiatives—had long provided essential support to millions facing severe nutritional deficits. Zia Mehrabi, a food security researcher at the University of Colorado Boulder, emphasized the agency’s role as a lifeline, warning that retracting such aid abruptly led directly to suffering and death. The cuts coincided with worsening climate impacts, which the UN reports as the second-greatest driver of global hunger after conflict, further destabilizing fragile regions. The study used global datasets tracking funding disbursements and violent conflict to isolate the impact of USAID’s withdrawal. While experts caution the findings are preliminary, the correlation between aid cuts and escalating unrest suggests a direct link. Climate-related migration—driven by rising seas and extreme weather—also exacerbates food insecurity, fueling further conflict in already vulnerable areas. Founded in 1961, USAID had long operated in some of the world’s most food-insecure and climate-affected regions, addressing humanitarian crises through targeted programming. The study underscores how abrupt policy shifts can have swift, destabilizing consequences, particularly in regions where aid was a stabilizing force against hunger and violence.