Trump's cuts at sea could make a Super El Niño way harder to see coming

The Trump administration plans to decommission the Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI), a US National Science Foundation-funded network critical for predicting extreme weather like El Niño, which scientists warn would increase forecast errors by 163% and disrupt agriculture, disaster response, and climate tracking globally. Researchers argue the $368 million system is vital for monitoring ocean heat content, a key indicator of climate change, and its loss would worsen economic and humanitarian impacts from supercharged weather events." "article": "The Trump administration is advancing plans to dismantle the Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI), a US National Science Foundation-backed network of underwater sensors, gliders, and moored platforms that provides critical data for global weather forecasting and climate research. Scientists warn the move would severely degrade predictions for extreme events like El Niño, particularly as 2026 is expected to bring heightened risks of supercharged weather patterns. A study published in *Nature Climate Change* found that removing US-funded ocean observations alone would increase errors in annual ocean heating rates by 163%, undermining forecasts for El Niño, fisheries management, and disaster preparedness. The OOI’s infrastructure spans all ocean basins, filling gaps no other nation currently addresses, making its loss worse than randomly losing 80% of global ocean data. Sabrina Speich, a global ocean monitoring expert at École Normale Supérieure in Paris, emphasized the stakes, stating ocean heat content is the most reliable indicator of climate change and that its loss would cripple tracking of ocean warming and broader climate systems. Forecasts would continue but degrade, with dangerous consequences for agriculture, insurance, and disaster response in the US and beyond. Farmers in the US and South America rely on El Niño forecasts to plan planting cycles, while the 2023-2024 El Niño—one of the five strongest on record—contributed to record global temperatures. John P. Abraham, a professor at the University of St. Thomas, criticized the administration’s decision to decommission the $368 million system, calling it a misguided cost-cutting measure that ignores the far greater economic toll of climate disasters. The OOI’s sensors act as the ‘eyes and ears’ of the ocean, providing data essential for predicting hurricanes, storms, and extreme weather. Without it, the US faces heightened risks of economic losses from climate-related events, which already exceed hundreds of billions annually. Scientists argue the move prioritizes short-term savings over long-term climate science and public safety.