UN urges the world to ready for extreme heat risk from El Niño

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has confirmed the development of a significant El Niño event, driven by warming waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Forecasting models indicate an 80% certainty of above-average temperatures worldwide from June to August, with a 90% likelihood that these conditions will persist and intensify through November and beyond. UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized the urgency of the WMO’s warning, stating that El Niño will exacerbate global warming’s effects, accelerating extreme weather events like heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall. He highlighted that these impacts will spread rapidly across borders, worsening existing climate challenges. El Niño, a naturally occurring climate pattern, involves warming ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific. It typically occurs every two to seven years, peaking between November and February, with the most pronounced temperature effects appearing in the second year. While climate change does not increase El Niño’s frequency, it amplifies its impacts by raising baseline atmospheric temperatures. The WMO predicts elevated global temperatures in 2025, with 2027 already projected to be the hottest year on record. Andrea Celeste Saulo, WMO Secretary-General, warned of heightened risks for droughts, heavy rainfall, and heatwaves in regions like southern South America, the southern United States, and parts of Africa and Asia. Conversely, Central America, northern South America, Australia, and Indonesia may face drier conditions, while El Niño’s warm waters could fuel hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific while suppressing Atlantic storm activity. Ireland, which experienced record temperatures last month, may see reduced rainfall due to El Niño but is expected to avoid its most severe warming effects. Other regions, such as the northern Greater Horn of Africa, South Asia, and Central America, face predictions of below-normal rainfall during critical seasons. The WMO’s advance warnings aim to guide global preparedness efforts against these anticipated climate disruptions.