UN Warns World To Prepare For El Nino Extreme Weather

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned on Tuesday that there is an 80% chance of El Niño developing between June and August, potentially triggering extreme weather events globally. The phenomenon, fueled by unusually warm Pacific Ocean waters, could exacerbate droughts, heavy rainfall, and heatwaves, with near-certainty (90%) of formation by November and likely moderate-to-strong intensity, according to the WMO’s quarterly update." "article": " The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued a warning on Tuesday, stating there is an 80% chance of El Niño developing between June and August 2024. This climate phenomenon, characterized by warming ocean waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, disrupts global weather patterns, increasing risks of extreme heat, droughts, and heavy rainfall. The WMO’s global forecasting network predicts a near-guaranteed (90% likelihood) El Niño by November, with most models suggesting it will be at least moderate, possibly strong. WMO chief Celeste Saulo emphasized the need for global preparedness, as El Niño could worsen existing climate hazards, including heatwaves and ocean temperature spikes. The last El Niño contributed to record-breaking global temperatures in 2023 and 2024, with 2024 reaching approximately 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels. El Niño’s effects are already evident, with sea-surface temperatures in the central-eastern Equatorial Pacific nearing thresholds and sub-surface temperatures exceeding averages by over 6°C. The Southern Oscillation Index, a key atmospheric indicator, also supports the developing phenomenon. While climate change does not alter El Niño’s frequency, it amplifies its impacts by increasing energy and moisture for extreme weather, according to the WMO. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described El Niño as an ‘urgent climate warning,’ urging immediate action to combat fossil fuel dependence and accelerate renewable energy adoption. He stressed that vulnerable populations must be protected, alongside the expansion of early warning systems—currently operational in 128 countries, with a UN goal of universal coverage by 2027. The WMO projects near-universal above-normal temperatures globally for June to August, heightening risks of compounded hazards like droughts and trade disruptions. El Niño typically peaks between November and February, with temperature spikes following later. Saulo warned of cascading impacts, from climate variability to economic and food security challenges, urging proactive measures to mitigate risks.