UN weather agency warns strong El Nino could bring extreme temperatures until at least November

The United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued a forecast on Tuesday warning of an 80% chance that a moderate or strong El Niño event will develop between June and August, with a 90% probability it will persist until at least November. El Niño, characterized by warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, typically lasts 9 to 12 months and disrupts global weather patterns, increasing risks of extreme heat, droughts, and heavy rainfall in vulnerable regions. The WMO stated that El Niño could exacerbate droughts in Australia, central America, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia, while increasing rainfall in southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and central Asia. It also heightens the likelihood of hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasized the need for global preparedness, noting that the 2023–24 El Niño contributed to 2024 becoming the hottest year on record. Regional impacts could mirror past disasters, such as the April–May 2024 floods in Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul state, which killed over 180 people and displaced 600,000. Francisco Aquino, head of the University of Rio Grande do Sul’s climate center, warned that a strong El Niño this year could trigger similar catastrophic flooding, as climate change amplifies ocean and atmospheric temperatures. Southern Africa may also face prolonged droughts, reducing rainfall during the rainy season and threatening agriculture, particularly for rain-fed farmers, according to Izidine Pinto, a senior researcher at the Netherlands Meteorological Institute. Scientists also highlighted heightened risks of tropical cyclones in the Pacific due to warmer ocean temperatures, with Antonio Navarra, head of Italy’s Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, noting that El Niño will inject significant energy into weather systems. Some experts suggest the potential destruction from this El Niño could foreshadow future climate extremes, even without El Niño events, as global warming intensifies baseline risks. Theodore Keeping, a research associate at Imperial College London, added that El Niño’s influence on atmospheric circulation provides a glimpse into how climate change alone could reshape weather patterns in the coming years.