‘Unpredictable and extreme’: Asia braces for El Niño
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned of an 80-90% chance of El Niño forming by September-November 2026, supercharging extreme heat and drought in Asia, with India and China facing severe agricultural and water supply risks. Experts say El Niño’s effects, combined with climate change, could prolong heatwaves, delay monsoons, and trigger unpredictable weather events like flooding and droughts across the region.
The United Nations and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) have issued a warning that El Niño has an 80% chance of forming before September and a 90% chance by November 2026. The natural weather pattern, amplified by human-driven climate change, threatens to intensify extreme heat and drought across Asia, particularly in India and China. In India, El Niño could worsen the ongoing heatwave, delay the monsoon rains, and exacerbate water shortages. Mumbai, which relies on seven rain-fed lakes with only 45 days of water left, faces a high risk of crisis if monsoon delays occur. Farmers already struggle with fertilizer shortages due to the Middle East crisis, and delayed rains could devastate crops like wheat and mustard, further threatening food security. China’s National Climate Centre predicts El Niño will peak in autumn and winter, bringing 20% higher rainfall in southern regions and elevated temperatures nationwide. Qinghai province, located on the Tibetan plateau, has urged residents to stockpile emergency supplies due to unpredictable weather shifts. China has already issued warnings for severe rain and storms as the country braces for extreme conditions. Experts highlight that El Niño’s impact will be compounded by climate change, creating a ‘deadly combination’ for agriculture and infrastructure. India’s agricultural expert Devender Sharma warned that 2026 will test the nation’s resilience amid climate and geopolitical pressures, with El Niño effects expected to appear by July or August. The WMO emphasizes the need for global preparedness as El Niño’s arrival could trigger widespread disruptions in food, water, and energy systems across Asia.
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