US experience fighting Iran offers lessons for China, experts say
Experts warn China may overestimate its military capabilities after studying US-Iran conflicts, noting Iran’s low-cost drone and missile attacks bypassed advanced US defenses like Patriot and THAAD systems. Analysts highlight Taiwan’s vulnerability to China’s drone swarms and hypersonic missiles, while questioning the effectiveness of Taiwan’s current countermeasures against large-scale attacks.
China’s military is analyzing the US-Iran conflict in the Persian Gulf to assess potential weaknesses in its own defenses, according to experts in Beijing, Taipei, and Washington. Fu Qianshao, a former Chinese air force colonel, emphasized that Iran’s ability to penetrate US anti-missile systems like Patriot and THAAD reveals critical gaps in defensive strategies. He warned that China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) must prioritize addressing these vulnerabilities to avoid similar breaches in future conflicts. The PLA has significantly expanded its offensive capabilities, including hypersonic glide vehicles and fifth-generation stealth fighters like the J-20, comparable to the US F-35. However, analysts note Iran’s success with low-cost Shahed drones and ballistic missiles exposed flaws in even advanced air defense systems. The US response combined high-tech precision strikes from F-35s and B-2 bombers with cheaper, guided munitions from older aircraft, demonstrating a mixed approach China must consider. Across the Taiwan Strait, China’s military buildup—including drone swarms and long-range rockets—poses a major threat to Taiwan’s defenses. Chieh Chung, a Taiwan-based defense analyst, stated that drones and missiles will dominate any potential conflict, with China’s drone manufacturers capable of producing up to one billion weaponized drones annually, according to a 2025 War on the Rocks report. Taiwan’s current drone countermeasures are deemed ‘ineffective’ by a government watchdog, raising concerns about critical infrastructure and military base security. Despite these risks, Taiwan is taking steps to improve its defenses. Gene Su, managing director of Thunder Tiger, Taiwan’s leading drone manufacturer, is reportedly leading efforts to enhance counter-drone technology. However, analysts warn that China’s overwhelming production capacity and hybrid warfare tactics could still overwhelm Taiwan’s preparedness, especially if Beijing employs a mix of high-tech and low-cost attacks similar to Iran’s strategies against the US.
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