US job growth beats expectations but consumer confidence at all-time low

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Friday that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 115,000 in April, surpassing analyst expectations of 55,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. The White House welcomed the data as evidence of economic strength under President Donald Trump, though job gains were concentrated in healthcare, transportation and warehousing, and retail trade. Healthcare led growth, accounting for 81% of private-sector job creation over the past two years, while sectors like federal government employment and information/computing continued to decline, with the latter down 11% from its peak in November 2022. Consumer confidence reached an all-time low in May 2026, according to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment, which fell to 48.2—the lowest since data collection began in 1952. Concerns over high prices and the fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran weighed heavily on consumer sentiment. Economists noted that while April’s jobs data provided short-term relief, the volatile employment trends—including downward revisions for February and March—suggest underlying economic fragility. Dan North of Allianz Trade cautioned that reliance on healthcare jobs alone was unsustainable, with private-sector growth excluding healthcare turning negative over the past year. Federal Reserve officials may use the data to justify maintaining current interest rates, despite inflationary pressures fueled by surging energy costs tied to the Iran conflict. The transportation and warehousing sector, though up in April, remained down 105,000 from its February 2025 peak, while federal government employment dropped 11.5%—348,000 jobs—since October 2024, reflecting Trump administration policy shifts. Kathy Bostjancic of Nationwide noted that while higher gasoline prices would curb spending, the strong labor market could offset some economic headwinds, particularly for lower-income households. Analysts remain divided on the outlook. Chris Zaccarelli of Northlight Asset Management called the data a rebuttal to pessimistic economic forecasts, while Gregory Daco and Lydia Boussour of EY-Parthenon highlighted persistent risks, including uneven job growth and inflationary pressures. The BLS also revised earlier figures downward by 16,000 jobs, underscoring volatility in labor demand. Economists attributed the stable unemployment rate to a decline in labor supply rather than robust hiring trends, raising concerns about long-term economic resilience.