US jobless claims edge up to 215,000, but layoffs stay near ‘historic lows’ despite Iran war uncertainty

The U.S. labor market showed signs of stability despite a slight uptick in jobless claims. According to the U.S. Department of Labor, initial unemployment claims increased to 215,000 for the week ending May 23, up from 210,000 the previous week. The four-week moving average also rose by 6,300 to 209,000, reflecting minimal volatility in the data. Economists described the rise as trivial, noting that claims remain near historic lows. Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, emphasized that the labor market’s strength persists, with 159 million workers employed. The number of Americans receiving unemployment aid rose by 15,000 to 1.79 million, though this remains low by historical standards. While layoffs have stayed limited, hiring activity has weakened significantly. Employers added fewer than 10,000 jobs per month in 2025, the slowest pace outside a recession since 2002. Job creation improved slightly in early 2026, averaging 76,000 jobs monthly from January to April, down from 122,000 in 2024 and nearly 400,000 annually between 2021 and 2023. The U.S. now requires fewer new jobs to maintain the unemployment rate due to reduced labor force growth, influenced by tighter immigration policies under President Donald Trump and the retirement of Baby Boomers. The unemployment rate held at 4.3% in April, indicating resilience despite subdued hiring. Economic uncertainty has intensified due to the Iran war, which has disrupted global oil supplies. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz—through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes—has caused the largest oil supply disruption in history. U.S. gasoline prices have surged to an average of $4.43 per gallon, up from $2.98 per gallon before the conflict, according to AAA.