Wales Senedd election 2026: Live updates as Plaid Cymru predicts 'fantastic day for Wales'

Wales’ 2026 Senedd election has taken a dramatic turn, with Plaid Cymru predicting a ‘fantastic day for Wales’ and Labour on track for its worst-ever performance. The party now expects to win only around 10 of the 96 Senedd Members, a historic collapse that could end its 104-year streak of winning elections in Wales and Westminster. Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies admitted Labour’s defeat is likely, calling it a ‘tough day’ despite no results being announced yet. Labour’s First Minister, Eluned Morgan, is fighting to retain her seat in Ceredigion Penfro, where her party’s vote share has reportedly plummeted. A Labour source confirmed she will take responsibility if the result goes against her, though she has refused interviews. Alun Davies, a former minister standing in Blaenau Gwent Caerfilli Rhymni, said he is ‘not confident’ of keeping his seat, while Cardiff council leader Huw Thomas acknowledged Labour’s decline but expressed hope of retaining influence. Plaid Cymru has already claimed victory in key seats, including half of the available spots in Caerdydd Penarth and Blaenau Gwent Caerfilli Rhymni. Reform UK’s deputy leader, Helen Jenner, predicted at least two seats per constituency, with three possible in some areas. The election uses a new proportional representation system, increasing the Senedd’s size to 96 members and electing six representatives per constituency instead of a winner-takes-all approach. Counting began across Wales, with results expected in the early afternoon. The new system, replacing a mix of constituency and regional seats, aims to better reflect voter preferences. Former First Minister Carwyn Jones criticized Labour, stating it is ‘no longer seen as the party of the working people.’ The outcome will determine the next Welsh Government, with Plaid Cymru poised to challenge Labour’s long-standing dominance.