Wall Street Analyst: SpaceX IPO Could Unleash Billions in New Public Offerings

Citizens’ JMP Head of Financial Technology Research Devin Ryan argued on CNBC’s *Squawk Box* (June 12) that a successful SpaceX IPO could reignite a dormant IPO market, potentially unlocking billions in new public offerings. Ryan noted the market has struggled for 4–5 years, with IPO activity at roughly half of its 2021 peak, as private fundraising—like OpenAI’s $120 billion raise—has absorbed capital typically flowing through public listings. The SpaceX S-1 filing confirms the IPO’s proceeds will repay a $5 billion bridge loan within six months, linking the listing directly to debt markets. Ryan emphasized the deal’s performance will set the tone for future listings, with BlackRock’s $5 billion order and Goldman Sachs/Morgan Stanley’s underwriting (at fees below 0.75%) signaling strong institutional demand. Beyond the IPO itself, Ryan highlighted broader financial sector benefits, including trading commissions, securities lending, and derivatives tied to a newly public mega-cap. Retail brokers like Charles Schwab (down 10.6% YTD) and Robinhood (down 18.45% YTD) could see renewed activity, as SpaceX’s debut may revive retail investor interest. If SpaceX trades well post-listing, Ryan expects a domino effect, with other private firms testing public markets. The catalyst could revive investment banking revenue streams—options, derivatives, and underwriting—long stalled due to the IPO drought. Analysts will watch whether SpaceX’s debut restores confidence, potentially reshaping capital markets after years of stagnation.