Wall Street Says the Stock Market's Return in 2026 Will Beat the 30-Year Average
The S&P 500 has returned 8.3% annually over the last 30 years, excluding dividends. Wall Street analysts expect the S&P 500 to advance 11.8% in 2026, driven by a 19.7% increase in earnings.
Nearly 5,500 companies were listed across U.S. stock exchanges as of the first quarter of 2026. The S&P 500, comprising the 500 largest U.S. companies, returned 8.3% annually over the last 30 years, excluding dividends. The index is heavily weighted toward technology stocks, with Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft among its top holdings. Wall Street analysts expect S&P 500 companies' earnings to increase 19.7% in 2026. The median forecast from 21 Wall Street firms predicts the S&P 500 will finish 2026 at 7,650, an 8% gain from its current level.
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