Warning over worsening economy in next 6 months

Tisco Financial Group has issued a warning that the global economy will confront growing challenges in the second half of 2026, driven by stagflation risks, high energy prices, and geopolitical conflicts. Paiboon Nalinthrangkurn, CEO of Tisco Securities, noted that prolonged high interest rates, slowing growth, and ongoing conflicts will weigh on financial markets and corporate profits, urging investors to diversify portfolios. The firm identifies three key risks: an oil shock from Middle East tensions, persistent US Treasury yield pressure, and stagflation eroding earnings and equity valuations. Global trade growth is also weakening due to protectionist measures. Tisco expects inflation to stay elevated despite slower growth, creating a tough environment for risk assets like large-cap tech stocks. As a hedge, Tisco recommends overweighting commodities, energy, and consumer staples, sectors historically resilient in stagflationary conditions. Gold is also highlighted as a protective asset against inflation and geopolitical instability. The firm advises balancing exposure across multiple asset classes to reduce volatility. In regional outlook, Tisco remains optimistic about Thailand’s equities, citing improving investor sentiment and potential foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. Thai stocks are undervalued, supported by corporate earnings and government stimulus, with the market’s ‘old economy’ structure offering resilience in a slow-growth, high-inflation scenario. GDP growth could reach 3-4% if high-value FDI sectors attract investment. Meanwhile, Tisco Asset Management retains a positive long-term view on artificial intelligence and robotics. Managing director Saharat Chudsuwan expects AI-driven productivity gains to sustain earnings growth through 2026-2027, with opportunities expanding beyond software into physical applications. The firm advises a selective approach to tech investments amid broader market uncertainties.