Weather experts warn El Nino '80 per cent' likely as temperatures could soar

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a warning that an El Niño event is 80% likely to develop between June and August 2026, with a near 90% probability of lasting until at least November. El Niño involves the warming of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, contributing to global temperature spikes and extreme weather conditions. The WMO’s forecast models indicate the event could be at least moderate, potentially strong, following the 2023-24 El Niño, which was among the five strongest on record and helped make 2024 the warmest year ever recorded. The global average temperature already exceeded the critical 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900) in 2024, raising concerns that 2027 could surpass previous records if El Niño intensifies. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described the impending El Niño as an ‘urgent climate warning,’ emphasizing the need for immediate action to curb fossil fuel use and transition to renewable energy. He warned that the phenomenon would worsen droughts, heavy rainfall, and heatwaves, disproportionately affecting vulnerable communities. Sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern Equatorial Pacific have been rising, nearing El Niño thresholds in late April to mid-May, fueled by unusually warm subsurface conditions exceeding 6°C above average. The WMO’s forecast combines data from global climate models, national meteorological services, and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), providing the most authoritative assessment. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo highlighted the importance of preparedness, noting that early warnings and seasonal forecasts are critical to mitigating economic and humanitarian impacts. The organization will continue monitoring conditions to guide governments and climate-sensitive sectors in responding to potential risks.