Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: Fed, BOE Among Slew of -2-
China’s May economic data, including industrial production, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment, will reveal resilience amid Middle East tensions, with forecasts predicting stronger growth in AI-driven exports and cautious domestic spending. Meanwhile, Australia’s central bank is expected to hold interest rates steady, while New Zealand’s GDP report and Taiwan’s monetary policy meeting will also influence regional economic outlooks.
China will release key May economic data this week, offering insights into its economic performance amid prolonged Middle East conflict. Industrial production is forecast to grow 4.6% year-on-year, up from 4.1% in April, driven by strong demand for AI-related electronics. Retail sales growth is expected to rise to 1.0% in May, up from 0.2% in April, though weak household sentiment continues to limit domestic consumption. Fixed-asset investment is anticipated to contract 2.0% year-to-date, reflecting ongoing government efforts to curb overcapacity and aggressive price competition. The latest house price index will also be closely watched, as the housing market downturn remains a drag on household wealth. Foreign direct investment data will provide additional context for investor sentiment. In Australia, the Reserve Bank is set to maintain the official cash rate at 4.35% on Tuesday, with markets expecting at least one more rate hike by late 2026. New Zealand’s GDP report for the three months through March will be released Thursday, with economists forecasting a 0.8% to 1.0% quarterly rise, though the impact of Middle East tensions may become clearer in the second quarter. Taiwan’s central bank will hold its June-quarter monetary policy meeting, with most analysts expecting no change despite May inflation rising above the 2% threshold for the first time in a year. Growth remains strong due to AI-driven exports, and inflation is currently manageable, reducing pressure for a rate hike.
This content was automatically generated and/or translated by AI. It may contain inaccuracies. Please refer to the original sources for verification.