Welsh Labour all but admits defeat in 2026 Senedd election - live updates

Welsh Labour’s prospects of retaining power in the 2026 Senedd election have collapsed, with Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies admitting the party will not form the next Welsh Government. Speaking to the BBC, he described the expected results as a ‘tough day’ for Labour, noting that voters appear to have shifted away from the party, potentially ending its 104-year streak of electoral dominance in Wales and Westminster. The election marks a significant shift in Welsh politics, with the Senedd expanding from 60 to 96 seats under a proportional representation system. Labour’s decline has been attributed to a loss of working-class support, as former First Minister Carwyn Jones stated the party is ‘no longer seen as the party of the working people.’ His comments reflect broader concerns about Labour’s message and relevance in Wales. Plaid Cymru, which campaigned on stopping the Reform UK surge, is seen as the likely beneficiary of Labour’s decline. Alun Davies, a former Labour minister standing in Blaenau Gwent Caerphilly, admitted he is ‘not confident’ of retaining his seat. The outcome could also hinge on whether Eluned Morgan, Labour’s leader, keeps her seat in Ceredigion Penfro, though Irranca-Davies declined to speculate on her chances. Counting is underway across Wales, with results expected from early afternoon. The new system of electing six representatives per constituency—rather than a winner-takes-all approach—could reshape the political landscape. If Labour loses, it will mark the first time since devolution began in 1999 that the party does not hold power in Wales. The election follows months of polling suggesting Labour’s defeat was inevitable. The party’s struggles have been compounded by internal divisions and a perceived failure to connect with voters. With the full results yet to be announced, the focus now turns to whether Plaid Cymru or another party can capitalize on Labour’s collapse.