‘We’re concerned’: US-based prediction markets taking bets on Australian elections and Albanese’s word choices

US-based prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are facilitating bets on Australian political events, including the outcome of the next House election and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s use of specific words like ‘Iran’ or ‘tax cuts’ during parliamentary question time. Kalshi recorded $13,000 in trades on Albanese’s word choices, while Polymarket saw nearly $500,000 in bets on the Farrer byelection winner. Neither platform is licensed in Australia, and both explicitly block Australian users, though access remains possible via virtual private networks (VPNs). The Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) has already mandated ISPs block Polymarket, classifying it as an unlicensed gambling service. Kalshi’s spokesperson confirmed trading is prohibited for Australian residents, but markets tied to local politics, economics, and sports continue to thrive. Gambling harm advocates, including Martin Thomas of the Alliance for Gambling Reform, warn of an emerging trend that regulators may struggle to address. ‘We’re concerned about it. I think it will be part of this next wave [of gambling] to hit Australia,’ Thomas said, noting the lack of oversight and potential for manipulation in these markets. Kai Cantwell, CEO of Responsible Wagering Australia, echoed concerns, stating that Australians are turning to illegal offshore operators outside regulatory protections. The platforms also host speculative markets on economic indicators, such as Australia’s unemployment rate and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate decisions, with $16,000 traded on election outcomes and $28,000 on June’s RBA call. Critics argue the lack of transparency and oversight increases integrity risks, particularly when compared to traditional licensed gambling services. While Kalshi and Polymarket operate legally in the US, their Australian markets raise ethical and regulatory questions. The Australian government’s upcoming wagering reforms may address some gaps, but experts suggest offshore prediction markets will remain a challenge due to their global accessibility and evolving nature.