What do this week's by-elections mean for Starmer?

Three UK by-elections on July 4, 2024, will test the strength of Labour, the SNP, and the Conservatives amid growing leadership tensions. In Scotland, the SNP is defending Aberdeen South—held by Stephen Flynn with a 1,244 majority—while Reform UK’s presence may shift votes away from the Conservatives, who blame the party for siphoning support in May. The SNP’s nervousness is heightened by Flynn’s absence from the US World Cup, though officials deny any ESTA issues. Meanwhile, the Makerfield by-election in Greater Manchester could spark a Labour leadership challenge, as former Cabinet Office minister Josh Simons resigned over a scandal involving a private investigative firm probing Labour Together’s finances. Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, is standing as Labour’s candidate and has vowed to challenge Keir Starmer if elected, despite the prime minister’s refusal to step down. Labour MPs are already urging Starmer to outline a resignation timetable, with some eyeing their own leadership bids. Wes Streeting, former health secretary, entered the fray on July 2, outlining a ‘progressive capitalism’ agenda that contrasts with Burnham’s recent remarks on fiscal rules and bond markets. Streeting criticized Burnham’s stance, arguing that ‘fiscal rules matter’ and pledging to fast-track housing, transport, and green energy projects like Jackdaw and Rosebank. His intervention adds pressure on Starmer, who has faced criticism over defence spending after resignations from John Healey, Al Carns, and other defence officials. The defence resignations followed Healey’s failure to secure £18 billion for military funding, with Carns hinting at a potential leadership run. Reform UK’s rising influence in Scotland further complicates the political landscape, as the Conservatives struggle to reclaim lost ground. The SNP, though confident in retaining Broughty Ferry, remains vulnerable in Aberdeen South, where voter disillusionment could reshape Westminster’s balance of power.