What is a ‘Godzilla’ El Nino, and how could it affect Singapore?
Singapore’s Minister for Sustainability and the Environment Grace Fu warned of a potential 'Godzilla' or super El Niño in 2026, which could trigger intense forest fires, haze, and hotter conditions in Southeast Asia. Experts predict a strong El Niño with sea surface temperatures rising 1.5°C above average, though models vary on whether it will reach 'super' status, with a 25% chance according to the US." "article": "Singapore may face sweltering and hazy conditions later this year due to a possible 'Godzilla' El Niño, according to Minister for Sustainability and the Environment Grace Fu. She warned on May 7 that a super El Niño could intensify forest fires and haze across Southeast Asia in 2026, with effects potentially matching the strongest recorded event nearly 150 years ago. The term 'Godzilla' El Niño was coined by a NASA climatologist in 2015 to describe an event stronger than the 1997/98 El Niño. A super El Niño occurs when Pacific sea surface temperatures exceed 2°C above the long-term average, compared to the 0.5°C rise in an ordinary El Niño. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates a 60% chance of El Niño emerging between May and July, persisting through late 2026. Climate scientist Koh Tieh Yong, from the National University of Singapore, said the event could reach a 1.5°C temperature rise by late 2026, though predictions vary. Some models suggest a super El Niño, while others fall short. Previous super El Niños in 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16 caused severe haze, including Singapore’s worst in 2015, which led to school closures. The Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) expects hotter weather from July, with reduced rainfall between June and October 2026 and February to May 2027. El Niño typically lasts 9–12 months and occurs every 2–7 years, with the last event in 2023–2024 contributing to 2024 becoming the hottest year on record. While climate change does not increase El Niño frequency, it amplifies extreme weather impacts like heatwaves and heavy rainfall. Singapore declares a heatwave when temperatures hit 35°C for three consecutive days, with daily means of at least 29°C. The 2016 heatwave was the last recorded, following the 2015 haze crisis. Experts emphasize preparedness, as the region braces for potential disruptions to air quality and weather patterns.
Singapore may face sweltering and hazy conditions later this year due to a possible 'Godzilla' El Niño, according to Minister for Sustainability and the Environment Grace Fu. She warned on May 7 that a super El Niño could intensify forest fires and haze across Southeast Asia in 2026, with effects potentially matching the strongest recorded event nearly 150 years ago. The term 'Godzilla' El Niño was coined by a NASA climatologist in 2015 to describe an event stronger than the 1997/98 El Niño. A super El Niño occurs when Pacific sea surface temperatures exceed 2°C above the long-term average, compared to the 0.5°C rise in an ordinary El Niño. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates a 60% chance of El Niño emerging between May and July, persisting through late 2026. Climate scientist Koh Tieh Yong, from the National University of Singapore, said the event could reach a 1.5°C temperature rise by late 2026, though predictions vary. Some models suggest a super El Niño, while others fall short. Previous super El Niños in 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16 caused severe haze, including Singapore’s worst in 2015, which led to school closures. The Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) expects hotter weather from July, with reduced rainfall between June and October 2026 and February to May 2027. El Niño typically lasts 9–12 months and occurs every 2–7 years, with the last event in 2023–2024 contributing to 2024 becoming the hottest year on record. While climate change does not increase El Niño frequency, it amplifies extreme weather impacts like heatwaves and heavy rainfall. Singapore declares a heatwave when temperatures hit 35°C for three consecutive days, with daily means of at least 29°C. The 2016 heatwave was the last recorded, following the 2015 haze crisis. Experts emphasize preparedness, as the region braces for potential disruptions to air quality and weather patterns.
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