What previous Super El Niños can tell us about the next one

A powerful El Niño event is developing in the Pacific Ocean, with forecasts suggesting it could become the strongest since at least 1950. Unlike typical El Niños, this phenomenon involves unusually warm ocean waters near the equator, disrupting global weather patterns and triggering extreme conditions such as flooding, droughts, heatwaves, and wildfires. Past Super El Niños—like those in 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16—left lasting economic and ecological damage, including $5.7 trillion in global income losses from the 1997-98 event alone, according to a 2023 study in *Science*. This year’s El Niño may exceed previous intensity, though uncertainties remain about its peak strength. While modern forecasting allows better preparation, budget cuts and political shifts threaten response efforts in vulnerable regions. The phenomenon also increases the likelihood of coral bleaching and crop failures, particularly in drought-prone areas. Meanwhile, some regions may experience milder winters, offering temporary economic relief. El Niño does not directly cause extreme weather but alters its probability, meaning random events will still occur independently. In the U.S., its influence peaks in winter, shifting weather patterns like increased rainfall in the southern states and drier conditions in the north. Globally, the event will likely push temperatures to record highs due to the heat transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere. Historical data shows El Niño’s economic toll extends beyond the event itself, with growth reductions lasting years. The 1997-98 Super El Niño, often called the ‘El Niño of the Century,’ provides a potential benchmark for current projections. However, climate scientists emphasize that no two El Niños are identical, making precise predictions difficult. Aid organizations and governments face challenges in preparing for the event, particularly in low-income countries already struggling with climate impacts. The interplay between El Niño and other climate factors, like long-term warming trends, further complicates forecasts. While some regions may benefit from milder winters, the overall global risk remains high, with potential long-term consequences for ecosystems and economies worldwide.