What Trump and Xi will discuss during China visit – and what could go wrong
Donald Trump’s first US presidential visit to China in nearly a decade will focus on easing tensions with Iran, extending the Busan Truce trade agreement, and securing Chinese investment and critical mineral access. Analysts warn limited preparations and ongoing conflicts may prevent major breakthroughs, though modest cooperation could stabilize markets and relations between the world’s two largest economies.
Donald Trump is visiting China for the first time as US president in nearly a decade, arriving amid a prolonged conflict with Iran that has strained his domestic approval ratings. The trip was originally planned for late March but delayed as the White House hoped to conclude its Middle East engagements, allowing negotiations from a stronger position. However, the Iran conflict remains unresolved, with China emerging as a key ally to Tehran and its economy largely shielded from global fallout, including potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Discussions between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will likely center on the Iran crisis, though other areas of cooperation may also arise. Trade tensions remain high despite the Busan Truce, a temporary pause in tariffs agreed last year, with the US trade deficit with China still exceeding $200 billion. The US Supreme Court’s February ruling invalidating many prior tariffs has limited Trump’s leverage, prompting expectations of a more conciliatory approach—extending the truce while seeking promises of increased Chinese investment in America. A delegation of American business leaders in technology, finance, and manufacturing will accompany Trump, pushing for continued access to critical minerals like rare earths, graphite, gallium, and germanium—key materials for chips, telecommunications, and military hardware. Beijing controls over 90% of global rare earth refining and significant shares of other vital resources. Negotiations may also include a potential aircraft deal with Boeing, with Chinese airlines considering orders for hundreds of 737 MAX jets, marking the first major Boeing purchase since 2017. Analysts, including Bert Hofman of the National University Singapore, expect limited progress, describing the visit as an effort to sustain the Busan Truce rather than achieve major breakthroughs. Preparations have been minimal, and no significant diplomatic groundwork has been laid for broader agreements. While modest cooperation could stabilize markets and relations, deep divisions—particularly over Iran and trade—may constrain meaningful outcomes. The summit’s success will hinge on whether both sides can balance symbolic wins with tangible concessions.
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