Where Trump has lost support with independents, according to AP-NORC polling

Donald Trump’s approval among independent voters has sharply declined since his return to the White House in 2024, according to an AP-NORC polling analysis covering July 2024 to April 2026. While half of independents without a college degree viewed him positively before his second term, that support fell to just 25% by spring 2026, eliminating a long-standing education gap in independent opinions. The analysis highlights steep drops during critical periods, including Trump’s first 100 days, the 2025 government shutdown, and the onset of the Iran war. The shift extends beyond education levels, with Black and Hispanic independents—groups that leaned toward Trump in the 2024 election—also showing reduced support. Independents, now the largest voter bloc, were pivotal to Trump’s 2024 victory, and their waning approval could signal challenges for Republicans in upcoming midterms. Researchers noted that while Democratic and Republican views of Trump remained stable, independents’ opinions fluctuated dramatically in response to events. Positive ratings among non-college independents dropped from 48% pre-term to 31% in his first 100 days, later falling further to 25%. College-educated independents, who already held lower approval, saw a smaller decline to about 25%. The data reflects broader trends: independents, who often prioritize economic issues, soured quickly after Trump’s return despite his 2024 campaign promises. The analysis underscores how volatile independent support remains, particularly among younger and minority voters, raising questions about Trump’s political trajectory ahead of 2026 elections.