Why It Matters if OpenAI or Anthropic Wins the IPO Race

OpenAI and Anthropic are locked in a high-stakes race to launch the first major artificial intelligence model developer initial public offering (IPO), with the winner potentially gaining significant market advantages. The timing of their listings could determine access to scarce investor capital, as SpaceX’s upcoming $1.5 trillion IPO and recent strong AI-related IPOs like Cerebras Systems (up 68% on debut) signal a competitive market. Academic research indicates that companies listing early in an industry cluster tend to outperform later entrants, as higher-quality firms go public first. With both Anthropic (valued near $1 trillion) and OpenAI (last valued at $852 billion) seeking sky-high valuations, the first to list may capture more investor attention. Patrick Healy of Issuer Network warned that SpaceX’s massive capital consumption could leave less room for subsequent AI IPOs, making timing critical. OpenAI, led by Sam Altman, faces internal challenges that could dampen market reception if it lists first, potentially forcing Anthropic (headed by Dario Amodei) to delay or adjust its valuation. Historical examples like Lyft and Uber’s 2019 IPOs show that a weak debut can negatively impact later listings in the same sector. While going first carries risks—such as Facebook’s early stock decline in 2012—early movers still benefit from raising capital and rewarding employees. Both companies are expected to file for IPOs this year, with the race intensifying as investor appetite for AI-driven firms remains strong. The outcome could reshape the industry’s valuation and competitive landscape.