Why Nuclear Deterrence in Asia Is Collapsing
Nuclear deterrence in Asia is collapsing as nuclear-armed countries become increasingly comfortable with making nuclear threats, while US credibility fades. The US Intelligence Community's 2026 Annual Threat Assessment notes that China's ambitions over Taiwan remain undiminished, but does not predict an imminent invasion.
Nuclear deterrence in Asia is collapsing. Nuclear-armed countries are making nuclear threats, while US credibility fades. The 2027 'Davidson window' approaches, but Washington appears less concerned about deterrence failure. China's military modernization and a potentially declining US force posture could create a gap in deterrence. Recent conflicts show that nuclear weapons do not prevent conflict, and nuclear-armed states are willing to incur risk by operating below the nuclear threshold. Examples include Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Iran's exposure of its capabilities. Deterrence is no longer reliably governing the space below major war, with tensions simmering on the Durand Line between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
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