Why the two Westminster by-elections are the SNP's to lose
Two Westminster by-elections in Scotland—Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry—will test the SNP’s hold after Stephen Flynn and Stephen Gethins resigned to join Holyrood. The Conservatives and Reform UK are targeting Aberdeen South, where boundary changes favor the SNP, though a low turnout and tactical voting could tighten the race.
Two Westminster by-elections in Scotland will take place following resignations by SNP MPs Stephen Flynn and Stephen Gethins, who won Holyrood seats earlier this month. Flynn’s departure triggers a by-election in Aberdeen South, while Gethins’ resignation opens the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry seat. The SNP retains a strong position in both constituencies, having won them at the 2024 general election. However, the Conservatives and Reform UK are actively campaigning in Aberdeen South, where the Tories have nominated Douglas Lumsden, a newly sworn-in MSP. The Conservatives narrowly missed winning Flynn’s Holyrood seat (Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine) by just 1,244 votes, but Westminster boundaries differ—excluding the more Conservative-leaning North Kincardine while including SNP-friendly Aberdeen Central. Analysts warn the Conservatives may struggle to replicate their near-win due to these boundary shifts. Allan Faulds of Ballot Box Scotland notes that Aberdeen South’s demographics favor the SNP, though a potential low turnout—due to overlapping council elections on June 25—could complicate predictions. Reform UK has also entered the race, fielding former nurse Jo Hart, who previously lost in Aberdeenshire West with under 15% of the vote. The party’s focus on Scotland’s oil and gas industry, under the slogan ‘drill Scotland drill,’ could resonate in Aberdeen South, where energy sector support remains influential. Researcher Will Scheffler of the Diffley Partnership highlights that Flynn won Aberdeen South in 2024 with 33% of the vote, while the Conservatives trailed at 24%. Reform UK’s 18% share in nearby Deeside suggests tactical voting may play a role, though the SNP’s adjusted constituency boundaries provide a defensive advantage. Despite these challenges, the SNP is expected to retain both seats, though the Aberdeen South contest could deliver a closer-than-anticipated result. Low voter engagement and shifting political dynamics will determine the final outcome.
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