Why Trump’s eyes are on Iran’s Kharg Island — and why that's a risk

Donald Trump has reiterated plans to seize Kharg Island, a small but critical Iranian outpost in the Persian Gulf responsible for over 90% of the country’s oil exports. In a post on Truth Social, Trump stated that the U.S. would take control of Kharg Island and other oil infrastructure, comparing the move to past actions in Venezuela. He acknowledged the risks, admitting, ‘I don’t know that America has the stomach for it,’ while also suggesting financial gains from such a move. The island, located just 20 miles off Iran’s coastline, serves as the primary hub for Iran’s oil exports due to its shallow waters, which force the country to rely on pipelines connecting to Kharg. Beyond its economic significance, Kharg Island hosts around 8,000 residents, including oil workers, and features historical sites like Dutch-built forts and ancient carvings. The island’s oil facilities include storage tanks, pipelines, and piers for supertankers, primarily exporting crude to China. Trump’s threats follow a breakdown in a fragile April ceasefire, during which the U.S. had already targeted military infrastructure on Kharg, including air defenses and naval bases, while largely sparing oil facilities. Experts warn that a ground invasion would be risky, with Christian Emery, an associate professor at University College London, noting that military success is not guaranteed and could escalate tensions further. Dania Thafer, executive director of the Gulf International Forum, cautioned that Iran would likely retaliate sharply, potentially targeting U.S. forces and Gulf energy infrastructure. Despite Trump’s characterization of Kharg Island as ‘totally unprotected,’ its strategic and economic value makes it a high-stakes target. The island’s disruption would severely impact Iran’s economy, which relies heavily on oil revenues, but the move could also provoke a broader conflict. Trump has expressed interest in seizing the island since at least 1988, but the feasibility and consequences remain uncertain amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.