Why Xi Jinping may choose patience over rushing into a deal with Trump

Chinese President Xi Jinping is poised to use Beijing’s growing influence over Iran and perceived U.S. military weakness to strengthen his negotiating position ahead of a summit with President Trump. The war in Iran has allowed China to position itself as a mediator, hosting Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi before Trump’s visit and signaling its economic leverage over Tehran, including control over critical oil imports. Analysts like Li Daokui, an economist at Tsinghua University, argue that China’s role in the Iran conflict bolsters its bargaining power, particularly on Taiwan. Xi seeks U.S. concessions such as delays or reductions in arms sales to Taiwan, a self-governing island Beijing claims as its territory. The Trump administration has already postponed announcing a $13 billion arms package to Taiwan, potentially violating the Reagan-era Six Assurances, which prohibit U.S. consultation with China before such sales. China’s economic interests also align with de-escalating the Iran conflict, as rising energy prices and a potential global recession threaten its export-driven growth. While Beijing may not intervene militarily, it could collaborate with the U.S. to keep the Strait of Hormuz open—a critical route for 40% of China’s oil imports—while demanding U.S. guarantees against blockades. China might also offer Iran loans, investments, or reconstruction aid, though it is unlikely to push Tehran to abandon its nuclear program. The Iran war has exposed U.S. military vulnerabilities, further emboldening China to press its Taiwan agenda. Xi’s strategy appears to be patience, using the distraction of the Iran conflict to avoid rushed deals with Trump while extracting concessions on Taiwan. The summit, their first in-person meeting since October, could see Trump discussing arms sales to Taiwan—a move that, if framed as a negotiation, could mark a shift from decades of U.S. policy.