Will Ethiopia’s election strengthen stability or deepen divisions?

Ethiopia’s parliamentary and regional elections on June 1 reinforced Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s dominance as his Prosperity Party secured a likely victory. The vote, involving over 50 million registered voters, determines the composition of the House of Peoples’ Representatives, the lower chamber of Ethiopia’s parliamentary system. While the outcome appears predictable, the election’s significance extends beyond political control, addressing legitimacy, inclusion, and stability in Africa’s second-most populous country with over 120 million people. Ahmed’s rise to power in 2018 followed anti-government protests, and he initially earned praise for reforms, including prisoner releases and ending Ethiopia’s long-standing conflict with Eritrea, which earned him the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize. However, his leadership faced severe challenges after the outbreak of the Tigray war in November 2020, a conflict with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) that resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths from fighting, famine, and displacement. Though a peace deal was signed in late 2022, tensions persist, alongside new security crises in regions like Amhara and Oromia, where armed groups challenge federal authority. The Prosperity Party holds structural advantages, controlling federal institutions and maintaining a nationwide presence that opposition groups struggle to match. Opposition parties remain fragmented by ideology, ethnicity, and leadership disputes, while alleging unequal conditions, including arrests and political pressure. The government denies these claims, framing the election as a step toward stability despite ongoing ethnic tensions and unresolved grievances. Analysts warn the election could deepen divisions rather than strengthen stability, given unresolved conflicts and accusations of democratic backsliding under Ahmed’s leadership. The vote marks a pivotal moment for Ethiopia, a key regional power in the Horn of Africa, as it navigates economic growth, political uncertainty, and the legacy of the Tigray war. The next five years will test whether the election consolidates power or exacerbates existing fractures in the country’s political landscape.