World Cup temperatures rise with climate change

Climate Central’s analysis warns that extreme heat will pose significant risks to player performance at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, hosted across 16 cities in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. The study found that 49 of the 104 matches face at least a 50% chance of temperatures exceeding 28°C, a threshold that can impair performance. Climate change specifically increases the likelihood of such heat by at least 10 percentage points in 26 matches, including a 17 percentage-point rise for the final in New Jersey on July 19. The Uruguay-Spain match in Guadalajara, Mexico, on June 26, is the most affected, with a 70% probability of extreme heat—a figure 37 percentage points higher due to climate change. The Türkiye-United States match in Los Angeles on June 25 also faces a 49% chance of surpassing 28°C, with climate change contributing 6 percentage points to that risk. Comparing past and present data, Miami (hosting in 1994) and Mexico City (hosting in 1986) have each experienced seven times more extremely hot June-July days in the past decade than during their previous World Cup hosting periods. This trend underscores the growing threat of heat to summer tournaments. Prof. Dr. Abdullah Yener Ince, an orthopedics specialist at Acibadem Maslak Hospital in Istanbul, emphasized that rising temperatures pose risks beyond performance, affecting player health. He noted that players lose more fluids, experience elevated heart rates, and struggle with recovery under extreme heat. High-intensity play becomes increasingly difficult, as the body prioritizes cooling over performance, potentially altering match outcomes. Ince also highlighted that hot weather can shift playing styles, favoring possession-based approaches over high-tempo, high-press tactics. Teams are now incorporating heat acclimatization into training to mitigate risks, as adaptation to heat can significantly improve performance. The analysis suggests that climate conditions are becoming a critical factor in football preparation, alongside traditional training and nutrition.