World risks year of severe fires fuelled by climate change: researchers

Researchers at Imperial College London and the World Weather Attribution (WWA) network warned Tuesday that 2026 could see a year of 'particularly severe' wildfires driven by climate change and a potentially strong El Niño event. The global fire season has already exceeded average levels by 50%, with 163 million hectares burned between January and early May—20% higher than the previous record since 2012. El Niño, a natural climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean, intensifies droughts, heavy rainfall, and extreme weather, exacerbating fires on a planet already warmed by fossil fuel emissions. The last El Niño contributed to 2023 and 2024 becoming the hottest years on record, and forecasts suggest this year’s event could rival a 'super' El Niño from the 1990s. Theodore Keeping, a WWA researcher, stated the risk of extreme fires could reach historic highs if El Niño develops strongly. Record-breaking fires have already struck West Africa, the Sahel, Sudan, South Sudan, and Asia, where burnt areas exceed 2014 levels by nearly 40%. The U.S. and Australia have also seen unusually large early-season fires. Friederike Otto, a WWA co-founder and climate professor, emphasized that while El Niño is a natural phenomenon, climate change is the primary driver of worsening extremes. Data from the Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS) confirms the unprecedented scale, with fires surpassing past records in multiple regions. Otto cautioned that the combination of climate change and El Niño poses a 'serious risk' of unprecedented weather extremes, though she stressed that long-term climate trends—not just El Niño—demand urgent attention.