Xi Warns Trump of ‘Thucydides’ Trap.’ What to Know About China’s Favorite Greek Reference for U.S. Relations

Chinese President Xi Jinping invoked the 'Thucydides Trap' during a summit with U.S. President Donald Trump in Beijing on November 15, questioning whether China and the U.S. could escape the historical pattern of conflict between rising and dominant powers. Xi cited the ancient Greek historian Thucydides, who described the inevitable war between Athens and Sparta due to Athens’ growing power threatening Sparta’s dominance. The concept was later modernized by political scientist Graham Allison, who warned in 2017 that China and the U.S. could be 'destined for war' unless they take deliberate actions to avert it." "Xi has repeatedly referenced the Thucydides Trap in past discussions, including a 2015 speech in Seattle where he argued that conflict is not inevitable and that mutual understanding could prevent strategic miscalculations. He emphasized reducing suspicion and paranoia between the two nations, stating that 'there is no such thing' as an inevitability of war if major powers avoid repeated mistakes. During a 2023 meeting with then U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Xi reiterated that the trap was 'not inevitable' and that the world could accommodate both nations." "Allison’s 2017 book, *Destined for War*, analyzed 16 historical cases of rising powers challenging established ones, with 12 ending in war. The warning remains relevant amid tensions over trade, artificial intelligence, and Taiwan, where U.S.-China relations are increasingly strained. Xi’s latest invocation underscores Beijing’s diplomatic effort to frame the relationship as one that can be managed through cooperation rather than confrontation.